2020
Like all good politicians, Indian president Abdul Kalam has set a lofty goal for his country: By the year 2020, India will
have an annual GDP growth rate of 9 percent with 10 percent of the population below the poverty line—a significant drop from
today's figure of 25 percent.
A panel of Indian luminaries moderated by Harvard Business School professor Tarun Khanna peered into what he described as "a
murky crystal ball" to make their own forecasts for the future. The discussion took place at the India Business Conference at
HBS on April 4.
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, director of the Independent Evaluation Office at the IMF, said that over the past several years,
other countries have retreated from the idea that globalization is universally a good thing. The opposite is true in India,
as the country gains new self-confidence in its role in the world market. Adding an extra 2 percent to India's growth rate
seems feasible, he said, and added that last quarter's growth rate of 10.4 percent was unusually high.
The question of whether India will meet its 2020 goal depends to a large extent on further economic reform, which tends to
proceed slowly in a "very pluralistic, democratic system," said Ahluwalia
Another question mark concerns India's regional differences. The country's growth has not been uniform, which could create
tension between states and lead to political destabilization. From a positive perspective, people are learning that more
liberal economic policies allow a state the freedom to leverage its particular advantages and spur growth.
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